Texas Housing Market Analysis: The Last 16 Quarters in Data

Texas home prices rose just 6.2% over the 16 quarters from Q3 2022 through Q2 2026, according to the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index for Texas, and year-over-year growth in Q2 2026 came in at 1.6%. The median listing price averaged $363,606 in Q2 2026, still well below its Q3 2022 peak of $395,483, while the active listing count hit 131,732, both from Realtor.com inventory data retrieved through FRED. Put those together and you have the defining fact of this market: prices that have barely moved in four years, sitting on top of a for-sale inventory that grew 77.4% over the same stretch. A Texas seller today faces far more competing listings than a seller did in 2022, and asking prices have been sliding since 2023 even as transaction prices inched upward.

How Texas Home Prices Have Moved

The last 16 quarters read like a sprint that turned into a crawl. In Q3 2022 the FHFA index for Texas stood at 500.1 and was still up 18.9% year over year, the tail end of the pandemic run. Then the brakes came on hard. The index slipped to 493.4 in Q4 2022, the only quarter-over-quarter decline in this window, and annual growth collapsed in stages: 12.7% in Q4 2022, 8.1% in Q1 2023, 2.3% in Q2 2023, and a low of 1.1% in Q3 2023. In the space of a year, appreciation went from nearly 19% to almost nothing.

Growth never came back. From Q3 2023 through Q2 2026, year-over-year appreciation stayed inside a narrow band from 1.1% to 3.5%. The high end of that band came in Q4 2024, at 3.5%; the last five quarters printed 1.6%, 1.7%, 1.3%, 1.5%, and 1.6%. The index closed the window at 531.3.

The slowdown tracked the cost of borrowing. The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage average climbed from 5.62% in Q3 2022 to a peak of 7.30% in Q4 2023, and it averaged 6.41% in Q2 2026. Texas prices never fell on an annual basis at any point in this window, but 6.2% of total growth across four full years is a very different market from the one that entered the window growing 18.9% a year.

What Homes Are Listed For

Asking prices tell a blunter story than the index does. The median listing price in Texas peaked at $395,483 in Q3 2022, the very first quarter of this window, and has not been back since. It fell to $375,663 by Q4 2022, recovered to $389,942 in Q2 2023, then began a long slide. The low point was $349,799 in Q1 2026. The latest reading, $363,606 in Q2 2026, sits $31,877 below the 2022 peak.

The year-over-year pattern is remarkably consistent. The median list price has posted a negative annual change in every quarter from Q3 2023 through Q2 2026, twelve straight quarters of declines, and they have been getting deeper rather than shallower: the 3.1% drop in Q2 2026 was the largest of the entire window. That creates a genuine tension in the data. The FHFA index, built from transaction prices, kept grinding upward while the prices sellers ask kept slipping. Both can be true at once when sellers price more aggressively to compete and the mix of homes hitting the market shifts. What this clearly is not is a market where sellers name their price.

How Many Homes Are on the Market

Inventory is where Texas really stands out. Active listings averaged 74,249 in Q3 2022, dipped to 70,011 in Q1 2023 (the low of the window), and then began a climb that, with seasonal dips along the way, kept reaching new highs. By Q2 2024 the count crossed six figures at 101,694. It hit 114,348 in Q3 2024, kept building through 2025, and peaked at 138,856 in Q3 2025. The latest quarter, Q2 2026, averaged 131,732 active listings, a 77.4% increase over the 16-quarter window.

The pace of that growth has changed, though. Year-over-year inventory growth ran at 105.2% in Q1 2023, meaning the number of homes for sale had more than doubled in a year, and it was still running at 40.9% in Q2 2024. By Q2 2026 the annual change was just 0.5%. Inventory is no longer surging; it has plateaued at a level far above where this window began.

For a seller, the arithmetic of that is simple. Every additional active listing is another option a buyer can tour, compare against yours, and use as negotiating leverage. When 131,732 homes are on the market instead of 74,249, buyers move slower, ask for more, and walk away more easily. That is not a prediction about where prices go next. It is a description of how much company a new listing has right now.

What Homes Are Worth in Texas's Largest Cities

Statewide numbers hide a lot of variation, so here is the same window at street level. The table shows the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), a smoothed, seasonally adjusted estimate of the typical home value in the city proper (not the wider metro area), for Texas's five largest cities as of Q2 2026, with the baseline each change is measured against.

San Antonio is the strongest of the five right now, with typical values up -2.2% year over year. Austin sits at the other end at -5.4%. The quarter-by-quarter city numbers, with the same up and down markers, are in the quarterly reports listed further down this page.

Sales, Supply, and Pending Deals

Prices tell you what homes are worth; transactions tell you whether anything is actually moving. Per the Redfin market tracker (all residential, not seasonally adjusted), completed sales in Texas averaged 29,566 homes a month in Q2 2026 (down 3% from the same months a year earlier), with pending sales running 36,457 a month. The median sale price, what buyers actually paid, averaged $350,150, up 0.6% year over year. At the current sales pace the market holds 4.6 months of supply, which by the common rule of thumb is balanced-market territory, and the typical home that sold went under contract in 60 days. Redfin figures for Q2 2026 reflect April and May, the months reported so far; year over year comparisons use the same months a year earlier.

*Partial quarter; see the note above. All change markers compare against the year-earlier baseline shown beneath them.

The Numbers, Quarter by Quarter

What This Means If You're Selling

More listings mean slower, choosier buyers

With 131,732 homes on the market, up from 74,249 four years ago, buyers can afford to be selective, and the twelve straight quarters of falling median list prices show that Texas sellers have already been repricing to meet them. More inventory generally means longer marketing times and more negotiation before a contract sticks. You can see how Texas compares with the national market on the same 16 quarters; the inventory build here is the part of the Texas story that stands out most.

The equity you built is intact, just not growing fast

The FHFA index never posted a negative year-over-year quarter in this window. If you have owned your home since 2022, the value you held then is still there, plus roughly 6.2% on top. What changed is the pace. At the growth rates of the last three years, appreciation is no longer doing the heavy lifting it did when this window opened, and this page makes no prediction about next quarter. For most owners, the sell-now-or-wait question has become a question about carrying costs and life timing rather than about riding rapid price growth.

Condition decides which buyers show up

In a market this crowded, homes in move-in shape compete for financed retail buyers, and homes that need work often struggle to get those buyers through the door at all. If your house needs repairs you do not want to fund, selling as-is is a real path, and it is the one we work every day. EZ Time Home Buyers makes written cash offers within 24 hours, closes in 2 to 3 weeks, and charges no fees or commissions, and our Retail Buyer Program typically nets sellers more than a typical cash offer when the house and timeline fit it. If you are weighing your options, start with where we buy in Texas and get a real number to compare against a listing.

Quarterly Market Reports

Every quarter in this analysis has its own report page with that quarter's index reading, listing data, mortgage rate, and city values, including the quarters where the story was very different from today's:

• 2022: Q3 · Q4
• 2023: Q1 · Q2 · Q3 · Q4
• 2024: Q1 · Q2 · Q3 · Q4
• 2025: Q1 · Q2 · Q3 · Q4
• 2026: Q1 · Q2

Data and Methodology

• Price index: FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index for Texas, FRED series TXSTHPI, quarterly.
• Asking prices: Realtor.com Housing Inventory: Median Listing Price in Texas, FRED series MEDLISPRITX.
• Inventory: Realtor.com Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in Texas, FRED series ACTLISCOUTX.
• Rate context: Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average, FRED series MORTGAGE30US.
• City home values: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), all homes, smoothed and seasonally adjusted, city level, retrieved August 26, 2026.
• Sales, pending sales, months of supply, and days on market: Redfin market tracker (monthly, all residential, not seasonally adjusted); transaction counts shown as monthly averages within each quarter, retrieved August 26, 2026.
• Sales, pending sales, months of supply, and days on market: Redfin market tracker (monthly, all residential, not seasonally adjusted); transaction counts shown as monthly averages within each quarter, retrieved August 26, 2026.
• Monthly series are averaged to calendar quarters.
• Data retrieved August 26, 2026. This page reports historical data; it is not a price forecast or investment advice.