Arizona Housing Market Analysis: The Last 16 Quarters in Data

Arizona home prices grew just 5.1% over the 16 quarters from Q3 2022 through Q2 2026, according to the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, the slowest 16-quarter run of any state market we track. Year-over-year growth was down to 0.9% in Q2 2026, and the index itself slipped from 732.7 in Q1 2026 to 731.2 in Q2. The median listing price stood at $476,150 in Q2 2026, per Realtor.com inventory data retrieved through FRED, down 4.5% from a year earlier. Active inventory sat at 30,133 homes, roughly double what was on the market in late 2023. If you own a house in Arizona, this page lays out exactly what happened, quarter by quarter, with no spin.

How Arizona Home Prices Have Moved

Start at the beginning of the window. In Q3 2022 the Arizona index read 696 and was still up 19.8% year over year, the tail end of the pandemic boom. Then the market turned fast. The index dropped to 669.5 in Q4 2022 and kept falling to 664.7 in Q1 2023, its low point for the entire window. By Q2 2023 the year-over-year number had gone negative, at -1.7%, followed by -1.1% in Q3 2023. Those are the only two negative-YoY quarters in the dataset, and not many states we cover have any.

The backdrop matters here: the average 30-year mortgage rate jumped from 5.62% in Q3 2022 to 7.30% by Q4 2023, per the Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average. Arizona had run harder than almost anywhere during the boom, and it gave back more when borrowing costs spiked.

The recovery was real but slow. The index did not regain its Q3 2022 level until Q1 2024, when it reached 698.3. Once prices stabilized, year-over-year growth peaked at 5.1% in Q2 2024 and then eased almost every quarter after that: 4.0%, then 3.2%, 2.5%, 2.0%, and 1.2% by Q3 2025. There was a modest firming to 2.3% in Q1 2026, but Q2 2026 came in at 0.9%, and the index level actually ticked down from the prior quarter, 732.7 to 731.2. Four years of data, and the sale-price index moved a net 5.1%.

What Homes Are Listed For

Asking prices tell a blunter story than the sale-price index. The median listing price was $489,483 in Q3 2022, dipped to $462,497 that winter, then climbed to its window peak of $514,632 in Q2 2024. It has not been back since. Starting in Q3 2024, the median list price has posted eight straight quarters of year-over-year declines, and the drops have been getting steeper, from -1.4% in Q3 2024 to -4.5% in Q2 2026, the largest decline in the window. The Q2 2026 median of $476,150 sits below where asking prices were in Q2 2023, and the most recent monthly reading, July 2026, came in lower still at $467,000.

A falling median list price is not the same thing as every house losing value; it also reflects which homes are being listed. But two years of steepening declines in what sellers ask, while the sale-price index barely grows, is a market where pricing power has clearly thinned.

How Many Homes Are on the Market

Inventory is where Arizona really stands apart. Active listings were 22,509 in Q3 2022, already up 129.0% year over year as the frenzy broke. Then supply tightened again: listings fell to 14,620 by Q3 2023, a 35.0% year-over-year drop, as owners with cheap mortgages stayed put. From that floor, inventory climbed almost without interruption: 19,050 in Q1 2024, 24,340 in Q4 2024, 30,570 in Q2 2025, the high for the window. Q2 2026 stood at 30,133, which is 33.9% more homes on the market than at the start of the window and roughly twice the 2023 trough. The one new wrinkle: Q2 2026 was down 1.4% year over year, the first annual decline since 2023, so the buildup has flattened out at a high level. The July 2026 monthly count was 28,572, per the Realtor.com active listing count retrieved through FRED.

For a seller, inventory is leverage, plain and simple. When 14,620 homes were listed statewide in late 2023, a well-priced house had little competition. With more than 30,000 on the market, buyers can compare, negotiate, and walk. That shows up in the asking-price data above: more selection for buyers, less pricing power for sellers.

What Homes Are Worth in Arizona's Largest Cities

Statewide numbers hide a lot of variation, so here is the same window at street level. The table shows the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), a smoothed, seasonally adjusted estimate of the typical home value in the city proper (not the wider metro area), for Arizona's five largest cities as of Q2 2026, with the baseline each change is measured against.

Scottsdale is the strongest of the five right now, with typical values up 1.8% year over year. Phoenix sits at the other end at -2.3%. The quarter-by-quarter city numbers, with the same up and down markers, are in the quarterly reports listed further down this page.

Sales, Supply, and Pending Deals

Prices tell you what homes are worth; transactions tell you whether anything is actually moving. Per the Redfin market tracker (all residential, not seasonally adjusted), completed sales in Arizona averaged 9,797 homes a month in Q2 2026 (up 3.4% from the same months a year earlier), with pending sales running 11,303 a month. The median sale price, what buyers actually paid, averaged $450,300, up 1% year over year. At the current sales pace the market holds 3.8 months of supply, which by the common rule of thumb is seller's market territory, and the typical home that sold went under contract in 61 days. Redfin figures for Q2 2026 reflect April and May, the months reported so far; year over year comparisons use the same months a year earlier.

*Partial quarter; see the note above. All change markers compare against the year-earlier baseline shown beneath them.

The Numbers, Quarter by Quarter

Here is the full 16-quarter dataset behind the charts.

What This Means If You're Selling

Your equity depends on when you bought

If you bought before the run-up, you are still sitting on the gains; the index at 731.2 remains well above the 664.7 low of early 2023, and nothing in this data has clawed back what was built before 2022. But if you bought near the Q3 2022 reading of 696, four years have added only 5.1% to the statewide index. Owners counting on appreciation to cover selling costs have less cushion in Arizona than in most states, which makes the fees and concessions of a traditional sale a bigger share of the math. Compared with the national market, Arizona sellers are working with a much thinner tailwind.

With 30,000 listings, condition decides who shows up

When inventory doubled from 14,620 to 30,133, buyers got choosy. The move-in-ready houses still draw traffic; the ones that need a roof, an AC unit, or a full cleanout get skipped, because a buyer scrolling 30,000 listings does not need to compromise. If your house falls in that second group, it helps to know how selling a house that needs repairs actually works before you list it against polished competition.

Price to this market, not to 2024

The median asking price peaked at $514,632 in Q2 2024 and has fallen year over year for eight straight quarters since. Sellers who anchor to a neighbor's 2024 sale are the ones who sit, then chase the market down with cuts. The data says buyers are seeing asking prices 4.5% below last year; a list price that ignores that is an invitation to be skipped.

We buy houses across the state, and where we buy in Arizona covers Phoenix, Tucson, Mesa, and Glendale in detail. If you want a number instead of a listing, we will put a written cash offer in your hands within 24 hours, buy as-is with no fees or commissions, and close in 2 to 3 weeks. And if speed matters less than price, our Retail Buyer Program typically nets more than a typical cash offer. Either way you get real figures for your house, in this market, and you decide.

Quarterly Market Reports

Every quarter in this analysis has its own report page with that quarter's index reading, listing data, mortgage rate, and city values, including the quarters where the story was very different from today's:

• 2022: Q3 · Q4
• 2023: Q1 · Q2 · Q3 · Q4
• 2024: Q1 · Q2 · Q3 · Q4
• 2025: Q1 · Q2 · Q3 · Q4
• 2026: Q1 · Q2

Data and Methodology

• Home price index: FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index for Arizona (FRED series AZSTHPI).
• Asking prices: Realtor.com Housing Inventory: Median Listing Price in Arizona (FRED series MEDLISPRIAZ).
• Inventory: Realtor.com Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in Arizona (FRED series ACTLISCOUAZ).
• Mortgage-rate context: Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (FRED series MORTGAGE30US).
• City home values: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), all homes, smoothed and seasonally adjusted, city level, retrieved August 26, 2026.
• Sales, pending sales, months of supply, and days on market: Redfin market tracker (monthly, all residential, not seasonally adjusted); transaction counts shown as monthly averages within each quarter, retrieved August 26, 2026.
• Sales, pending sales, months of supply, and days on market: Redfin market tracker (monthly, all residential, not seasonally adjusted); transaction counts shown as monthly averages within each quarter, retrieved August 26, 2026.
• Monthly series are averaged to calendar quarters.
• Data retrieved August 26, 2026. This page reports historical data; it is not a price forecast or investment advice.