Tennessee Housing Market Analysis: The Last 16 Quarters in Data

Tennessee home prices rose 15% over the 16 quarters from Q3 2022 through Q2 2026, according to the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index for Tennessee retrieved through FRED. The pace has cooled hard, though: as of Q2 2026 prices are up just 2.6% year over year, the slowest reading anywhere in the window, down from 22.2% when it opened. The median listing price stands at $433,483 per Realtor.com inventory data retrieved through FRED, still below its Q3 2023 peak of $454,648. And sellers have far more company than they used to: 33,852 homes were actively listed in Q2 2026, up 96.1% from 17,263 in Q3 2022. Prices keep inching up while the shelves fill. That tension runs through everything below.

How Tennessee Home Prices Have Moved

The index stood at 613.3 in Q3 2022, with annual growth still running at a pandemic-boom 22.2%. That pace did not survive the jump in borrowing costs. The Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average went from 5.62% in Q3 2022 to 6.66% a quarter later, and the index actually slipped to 609.7 in Q4 2022, the only quarter-over-quarter decline in the entire window. Annual growth collapsed in stages: 22.2%, then 15.5%, then 11.2%, then 5.7% by Q2 2023.

What happened next surprised anyone waiting for a correction. Tennessee never posted a negative year-over-year quarter. Growth settled into a band near 5% and stayed there through 2023 and 2024: 5.2% in Q4 2023, 5.8% in Q1 2024, then 5.2%, 5.1%, and 5.3% across the rest of 2024, even as mortgage rates averaged as high as 7.3% in Q4 2023.

Then came a second, gentler step down. 2025 ran between 3.2% and 3.9%. Q1 2026 held at 3.5%, and Q2 2026 printed 2.6%, the softest annual gain of all 16 quarters. The index itself never stopped grinding higher, finishing at 705.4.

So the shape is clear: a fast deceleration through early 2023, a long plateau near 5%, and a slow fade toward 2-3% by 2026. Appreciation cooled for nearly four straight years. It just never turned negative.

What Homes Are Listed For

Asking prices tell a bumpier story than the price index. The median listing price was $432,148 in Q3 2022, dipped to $420,000 that winter, then climbed to its window peak of $454,648 in Q3 2023. It has not been back since.

From Q2 2024 through Q2 2025, the median list price fell year over year for five straight quarters, bottoming at a 4.6% annual decline in Q3 2024. Late 2025 and early 2026 were essentially flat, with readings of +0.3%, +0.1%, and +0.1%. Q2 2026 came in at $433,483, down 1.1% from a year earlier and about $21,000 under the 2023 peak. The most recent monthly reading, July 2026, was $435,000.

Notice the split in the data: the FHFA index, which tracks closed transactions, kept rising through this whole stretch, while the price sellers ask has drifted sideways to down since mid-2023. Asking prices reflect what is coming onto the market in a given quarter, including its mix of homes, so the two series can disagree without either being wrong. But three years of flat list prices is a real change from 2022, when they were growing 26.8% a year.

How Many Homes Are on the Market

Inventory is where Tennessee's market has changed the most. Active listings nearly doubled over the window, from 17,263 in Q3 2022 to 33,852 in Q2 2026, a 96.1% increase according to the Realtor.com active listing count retrieved through FRED.

The early year-over-year numbers look wild, +104.8% in Q4 2022 and +142.1% in Q1 2023, but those were measured against the near-empty market of late 2021 and early 2022. The count actually touched its window low of 16,411 in Q2 2023. The climb since then has been steady and unbroken on an annual basis: 22,151 by Q2 2024, 26,706 the following quarter, past 30,000 in Q2 2025, and 33,852 in Q2 2026, the highest quarterly figure in the window. July 2026 alone counted 36,364 active listings. The growth rate is easing, from +36.8% year over year in Q2 2025 to +11.7% in Q2 2026, but easing growth on a record base still means more homes for sale each quarter.

For a seller, inventory is leverage, plain and simple. When 16,000 homes were listed statewide, buyers had to move fast and bid clean. With nearly 34,000 on the market, buyers can compare, tour, wait, and negotiate on repairs and price. None of that tells you where prices go next. It does tell you that the average Tennessee listing now competes with roughly twice the neighbors it had in 2022.

What Homes Are Worth in Tennessee's Largest Cities

Statewide numbers hide a lot of variation, so here is the same window at street level. The table shows the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), a smoothed, seasonally adjusted estimate of the typical home value in the city proper (not the wider metro area), for Tennessee's five largest cities as of Q2 2026, with the baseline each change is measured against.

Knoxville is the strongest of the five right now, with typical values up 0.9% year over year. Nashville sits at the other end at -3.2%. The quarter-by-quarter city numbers, with the same up and down markers, are in the quarterly reports listed further down this page.

Sales, Supply, and Pending Deals

Prices tell you what homes are worth; transactions tell you whether anything is actually moving. Per the Redfin market tracker (all residential, not seasonally adjusted), completed sales in Tennessee averaged 8,232 homes a month in Q2 2026 (up 1.2% from the same months a year earlier), with pending sales running 10,156 a month. The median sale price, what buyers actually paid, averaged $406,700, up 2.8% year over year. At the current sales pace the market holds 4.5 months of supply, which by the common rule of thumb is balanced-market territory, and the typical home that sold went under contract in 65 days. Redfin figures for Q2 2026 reflect April and May, the months reported so far; year over year comparisons use the same months a year earlier.

*Partial quarter; see the note above. All change markers compare against the year-earlier baseline shown beneath them.

The Numbers, Quarter by Quarter

What This Means If You're Selling

Your equity is real, but your leverage is thinner

If you bought before mid-2022, the 15% index gain since Q3 2022 sits on top of the boom years that came before it, so most Tennessee owners are selling with meaningful equity. What has changed is the other side of the table. With active listings up 96.1% and median asking prices still below their 2023 peak, buyers have options they simply did not have four years ago, a dynamic playing out in much of the country, as our analysis of the national market shows. Equity determines what you walk away with; inventory determines how hard you work to get it.

More listings means condition gets judged harder

When a buyer can choose among nearly 34,000 Tennessee homes, the dated kitchen or the roof at the end of its life stops being a footnote and starts being the reason they pick the house down the street. In a tight market, rough houses sold anyway. In this one, they sit, get price cuts, or attract only bargain hunters. If your property needs work you cannot or do not want to fund, it is worth understanding how selling a house that needs repairs actually plays out before you list it against move-in-ready competition.

Two ways to sell into this market

We buy houses across the state, and everything on our page about where we buy in Tennessee applies regardless of what inventory is doing: a written cash offer within 24 hours, closing in 2-3 weeks, no fees, and no repairs, which sidesteps the condition problem entirely. If your house is in solid shape and you have some time, our Retail Buyer Program lists it to financed buyers and typically nets more than a typical cash offer. The data on this page cannot tell you which path fits your situation. It can tell you the market you would be walking into: prices still rising slowly, asking prices flat, and twice the competition of 2022.

Quarterly Market Reports

Every quarter in this analysis has its own report page with that quarter's index reading, listing data, mortgage rate, and city values, including the quarters where the story was very different from today's:

• 2022: Q3 · Q4
• 2023: Q1 · Q2 · Q3 · Q4
• 2024: Q1 · Q2 · Q3 · Q4
• 2025: Q1 · Q2 · Q3 · Q4
• 2026: Q1 · Q2

Data and Methodology

• House prices: FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index for Tennessee (FRED series TNSTHPI).
• Listing prices: Realtor.com Housing Inventory: Median Listing Price in Tennessee (FRED series MEDLISPRITN).
• Inventory: Realtor.com Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in Tennessee (FRED series ACTLISCOUTN).
• Mortgage rate context: Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (FRED series MORTGAGE30US).
• City home values: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), all homes, smoothed and seasonally adjusted, city level, retrieved August 26, 2026.
• Sales, pending sales, months of supply, and days on market: Redfin market tracker (monthly, all residential, not seasonally adjusted); transaction counts shown as monthly averages within each quarter, retrieved August 26, 2026.
• Sales, pending sales, months of supply, and days on market: Redfin market tracker (monthly, all residential, not seasonally adjusted); transaction counts shown as monthly averages within each quarter, retrieved August 26, 2026.
• Monthly series are averaged to calendar quarters.
• Data retrieved August 26, 2026. This page reports historical data; it is not a price forecast or investment advice.